By David Petikyan, DRE 02089725 · Property Provider Group | eXp Realty · Updated October 2026
Moving from the San Fernando Valley to the Antelope Valley usually means trading a shorter commute for a much cheaper house.
So, is moving from the San Fernando Valley to the Antelope Valley worth it? For many owners, yes. Palmdale’s median sale price was $511,257 for the three months ending September 2026, against $839,765 in Mission Hills, roughly $329,000 less by my math. The costs are the drive, fewer walkable errands, higher wildfire exposure and, for some, a higher property tax base.
The price gapWhat Moving From the San Fernando Valley to the Antelope Valley Saves You
I work both ends of this move, from our main office on Devonshire Street in Mission Hills and our second office in Palmdale. The first question is always the same: how far does Valley equity go up the 14?
Here are Redfin’s numbers for the three months ending September 2026.
| Measure | Mission Hills | Palmdale | Lancaster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $839,765 (+7.0%) | $511,257 (−1.7%) | $474,774 (+1.6%) |
| Price per sq ft | $439 | $278 | $268 |
| Median days on market | 26 | 50 | 41 |
| Sale-to-list price | 102.4% | 99.7% | 100.1% |
| Some wildfire risk (30 yrs) | 8% of properties | 94% of properties | 43% of properties |
| Walk Score | 50 | 24 | 29 |
Redfin, three months ending September 2026; wildfire risk from First Street via Redfin. Changes are year over year.
Monthly costYour Monthly Payment, Valley vs. Antelope Valley
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1Mission Hills median
$839,765 with 20% down leaves a loan of about $671,800. At 7.40%, principal and interest come to about $4,650 a month.
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2Palmdale median
$511,257 with 20% down leaves a loan of about $409,000. At the same rate, principal and interest come to about $2,830 a month.
The 7.40% rate is Freddie Mac’s 30-year average for the week of October 15, 2026. These are my approximate figures, before taxes, insurance and HOA dues.
Property taxesCan You Take Your Prop 13 Tax Base With You?
Buying resets the assessed value to your price. Under Proposition 13, the LA County Assessor explains, the general levy is 1% of assessed value plus voter-approved and direct assessments, and increases are capped at 2% a year. If you’ve owned in the Valley for decades, a cheaper Palmdale house could still mean a higher tax bill.
Proposition 19 can help. Owners 55 or older, severely disabled, or hit by a wildfire or natural disaster can transfer their taxable value to a replacement home anywhere in California, up to three times, if they buy within two years before or after the sale. A home of “equal or lesser value” (100% of the old home’s value if bought first, 105% in year one after the sale, 110% in year two) keeps the base with no adjustment.
A Mission Hills-to-Palmdale move is usually well under that test. File the claim with the LA County Assessor after both sales close and you’ve moved in.
My tip
Before you list, pull your current tax bill. Then get the new home’s bill early in escrow and compare them, direct assessments included.
Getting thereThe Commute: Highway 14 and Metrolink
By car, State Route 14 runs south from Palmdale through Santa Clarita and joins I-5 at the Newhall Pass, just north of Sylmar and Granada Hills.
By train, Metrolink’s Antelope Valley Line timetable (effective May 4, 2026) lists 8 weekday trains each way between Lancaster and L.A. Union Station; the first three leave Palmdale at 4:20, 5:20 and 6:20 a.m. From Palmdale it’s scheduled at 1 hour 23 minutes to Sylmar/San Fernando and 2 hours to Union Station. From Lancaster, add 9 minutes.
The trade-offsWhat You Give Up, and What You Get
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1Wildfire and insurance
First Street puts 94% of Palmdale properties at some wildfire risk, versus 8% in Mission Hills. Get an insurance quote before removing contingencies.
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2A car for everything
Walk Scores are 24 in Palmdale and 29 in Lancaster, versus 50 in Mission Hills.
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3Heat is closer than you think
First Street projects about 19 days a year above 99°F in Palmdale within 30 years, versus 21 in Mission Hills.
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4More room to negotiate
35.0% of Palmdale homes had a price drop, versus 23.4% in Mission Hills.
Selling firstCosts to Plan For When You Sell in the Valley
Mission Hills, Northridge and Granada Hills are City of Los Angeles neighborhoods, so a sale pays the county’s $1.10 per $1,000 plus the City’s $4.50 per $1,000 (Measure ULA applies only above $5.4 million). At the Mission Hills median, that’s roughly $4,700 (my estimate). Palmdale and Lancaster charge only the county rate. For commissions and escrow, see my cost to sell guide.
Mission Hills homes sold in a median of 26 days, and 70.8% sold above list. Selling first, then buying in the slower Antelope Valley market, is often the cleaner order.
Fit checkIs the Move Right for You?
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A strong fit if you
- Want a lower payment or no mortgage
- Work locally or remotely most days
- Want a bigger home for the money
- Qualify for a Prop 19 tax transfer
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Think twice if you
- Drive into LA five days a week
- Want to walk to shops and dinner
- Can’t absorb higher insurance costs
- Bought recently and have little equity
Your local guide
David Petikyan
I lead Property Provider Group with eXp Realty from our Mission Hills office on Devonshire Street and our second office in Palmdale, serving all of LA County, from the Valley to the Antelope Valley.
Property Provider Group | eXp Realty · DRE# 02089725
15545 Devonshire St #103, Mission Hills, CA 91345 · (818) 394-0012
eXp Realty of Greater Los Angeles, Inc. #02188471 · Equal Housing Opportunity
Moving to the Antelope Valley FAQ
Is moving from the San Fernando Valley to the Antelope Valley worth it?
For many owners, yes, if the commute works. Palmdale’s median sale price was $511,257 and Lancaster’s $474,774 in the three months ending September 2026, versus $839,765 in Mission Hills. The trade-offs are the drive, fewer walkable errands and higher wildfire risk.
How much cheaper are homes in Palmdale and Lancaster than in the Valley?
Based on Redfin medians for the three months ending September 2026, Palmdale is roughly $329,000 below Mission Hills and Lancaster is roughly $625,000 below Northridge. Per square foot, Palmdale ($278) is about 37% below Mission Hills ($439).
Can I keep my low property tax base if I move to Palmdale or Lancaster?
Possibly. Under Proposition 19, owners 55 or older, severely disabled, or hit by a wildfire or natural disaster can transfer their taxable value to a replacement home anywhere in California, up to three times, if they buy within two years before or after the sale. A home of equal or lesser value keeps the old base.
How long is the train from Palmdale or Lancaster to Los Angeles?
Metrolink’s Antelope Valley Line timetable effective May 4, 2026 lists 8 weekday trains each way. Trains are scheduled at 2 hours from Palmdale and 2 hours 9 minutes from Lancaster to L.A. Union Station, and 1 hour 23 minutes from Palmdale to Sylmar/San Fernando.
More Antelope Valley and Valley Guides
- Palmdale Real Estate
- Lancaster Real Estate
- Is Palmdale a Good Place to Live?
- Quartz Hill Real Estate
- Santa Clarita Real Estate
- Mission Hills Real Estate
- Cost to Sell in Northridge & Nearby
- Free Home Valuation
Sources & notes
Redfin, Palmdale housing market · Metrolink timetable (May 4, 2026) · BOE, Proposition 19 · LA County Assessor, Proposition 13 · LA County Registrar-Recorder, transfer tax. Market data: Redfin, three months ending September 2026 (Palmdale, Lancaster, Mission Hills, Northridge, Granada Hills pages); wildfire, heat and Walk Scores from First Street and Walk Score via Redfin; rate from Freddie Mac PMMS, week of October 15, 2026. Payment and price-gap figures are my approximate calculations. Photo credits in captions. Not tax or legal advice; confirm Prop 19 eligibility with the Assessor. Information believed accurate but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.